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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd